Fall Stats

• 2026 will be the 30th time suppliants have sought the honor of being the oracle. The first oracle was chosen in 1997.
• Not all years have been blessed with oracles:
• In six years (1999, 2004, 2008, 2016, 2021, and 2024), the tree has chosen demioracles (only half the leaves fell on their days).
• Another year (2002), the closest we could come was an apprentice oracle (a suppliant who was close).
• And five fateful years (2006, 2013, 2017, 2019, and 2025), there was no oracle at all. And we wept bitter tears.
• There have been 18 oracles, 12 demioracles, and 2 apprentice oracles.
• One oracle (Norm Darais, in 2007) was given the special honor of being the Golden Oracle (because the tree waited so long to drop its leaves that they had actually turned yellow).
• Niki Tengan has surpassed all others in her clairvoyant powers. She has been the oracle three times (2010, 2012, 2020).
• The average date of the fall is Nov. 16.
• Until 2019 the fall had never occurred in October.
• The earliest fall has been Oct. 28 (2019); the latest has been Nov. 27 (2023).
• Nov. 24 is the most common day for the fall; the tree has selected that date four times. Nov. 15 and Nov. 22 have been selected three times each.

Legends of the Fall

2025: no oracle was chosen :(

2024 Demioracles: Emma Collyer and Esther Eberting (Nov. 20); Bruce Patrick and Elijah Pearce (Nov. 25)

2023 Oracle: Natalie Miles, Nov. 27

2022 Oracle: Shane Westwood, Nov. 11

2021 Demioracles: Lena Primsoch, Nov. 25, and Andy Bay, Nov. 26

2020 Oracle: Niki Tengan, Nov. 7

2019: no oracle was chosen :(

2018 Oracle: Adam Johnson, Nov. 9

2017: no oracle was chosen :(

2016 Demioracle: Peter Gardner, Nov. 18

2015 Oracle: AJ Rich, Nov. 22

2014 Oracle: Jon Woidka, Nov. 16
2013: no oracle was chosen :(

2012 Oracle: Niki Tengan, Nov. 11
2011 Oracle: Marlin Sharp, Nov. 9
2010 Oracle: Niki Tengan, Nov. 24
2009 Oracle: Roma Hardy, Nov. 15
2008 Demioracle: Joyce Janetski, Nov. 24
2007 Golden Oracle: Norman Darais, Nov. 21
2006: no oracle was chosen :(

2005 Oracle: Peter Gardner, Nov. 15
2005 Apprentice Oracle: Natalie Miles, Nov. 16 (a lot of leaves, but not half)
2004 Demioracles: Charles Cranney, Nov. 2, and John Petersen, Nov. 24
2003 Oracles: Mark Larson and Keith Fullmer, Nov. 22
2002 Apprentice Oracle: Bryce Ott, Nov. 6 (leaves fell Nov. 1; Bryce was closest)
2001 Oracle: John Finlay, Nov. 24
2000 Oracle: Charles Cranney, Nov. 8
1999 Demioracles: Tawni Goldsberry, Nov. 22, and Bruce Patrick, Nov. 23
1998 Oracle: Brian Barrus, Nov. 20
1997 Oracle: Brian Barrus, Nov. 15

Predict the Fall Explanation

The tree outside the east door of Brand & Creative (in the University Press Building) is a white mulberry, a species with the unusual habit of retaining its leaves as long as possible. Each autumn those of us who work in the building watch as all the other trees’ leaves turn yellow and red and gradually loose their grip. Meanwhile, the leaves of our mulberry tree stay—for the most part—green and firmly attached.

Then one fateful day we come to work and are greeted by the sound of fall: scores of leaves hitting the ground in rapid succession. For much of one day (maybe two), the spectacle continues as leaves rain down outside our office. Within a day or so, the tree is bare.

In 1997 we began the Predict the Fall contest in which we each attempt to pinpoint the date the leaves will fall. Those who participate enter a quest to become the "Oracle of the Tree" for the coming year.