A Spectacular Fall

Thursday, Nov. 10, was a cold day, and the night was even colder. UPB dwellers who arrived at work Friday morning were witness to a spectacle of leaves unlike any we have seen for many years. The fall was rapid, and the sound of leaves hitting the ground was a pleasant, soft pitter patter that continued for more than a half an hour as the branches emptied. Many people stopped and watched in wonder, some tried to catch leaves as they fell, and others mentioned that though they have worked here for years they have never witnessed the fall. It was a glorious morning as we celebrated Shane Westwood's newly bestowed oracleship.

A Thankful Fall

As we all enjoyed a warmer-than-usual November, the tree clung to most of its leaves, though a few seemed to fall every day. As Thanksgiving approached, much of the tree was yellow-green, with the extremities of the branches bare. This photo was taken Nov. 19: 

When we returned to the office after Thanksgiving, we found the limbs vacant. This photo was taken Nov. 29:

No one witnessed the actual fall, but we found someone who visited the UPB on Thanksgiving and who said that the tree had lost many leaves by late morning but many still clung to the tree. Another tree watcher came to the office Friday at about noon and later reported that the tree was bare, so we surmise that leaves fell both Thursday and Friday mornings. (Incidentally, Thursday and Friday, Nov. 25 and 26, were the coldest days of the month, dipping into the low 20s each morning.)

Fall Stats

• 2023 will be the 27th time suppliants have sought the honor of being the oracle. The first oracle was chosen in 1997.
• Not all years have been blessed with oracles:
• In five years (1999, 2004, 2008, 2016, and 2021), the tree has chosen demioracles (only half the leaves fell on their days).
• Another year (2002), the closest we could come was an apprentice oracle (a suppliant who was close).
• And four fateful years (2006, 2013, 2017, and 2019), there was no oracle at all. And we wept bitter tears.
• There have been 17 oracles, 8 demioracles, and 2 apprentice oracles.
• One oracle (Norm Darais, in 2007) was given the special honor of being the Golden Oracle (because the tree waited so long to drop its leaves that they had actually turned yellow).
• Niki Tengan has surpassed all others in her clairvoyant powers. She has been the oracle three times (2010, 2012, 2020).
• The average date of the fall is Nov. 15.
• Until 2019 the fall had never occurred in October.
• The earliest fall has been Oct. 28 (2019); the latest has been Nov. 25-26 (2021).
• Nov. 24 is the most common day for the fall; the tree has selected that date four times. Nov. 15 and Nov. 22 have been selected three times each.

Legends of the Fall

2022 Oracle: Shane Westwood, Nov. 11

2021 Demioracles: Lena Primsoch, Nov. 25, and Andy Bay, Nov. 26

2020 Oracle: Niki Tengan, Nov. 7

2019: no oracle was chosen

2018 Oracle: Adam Johnson, Nov. 9

2017: no oracle was chosen

2016 Demioracle: Peter Gardner, Nov. 18

2015 Oracle: AJ Rich, Nov. 22

2014 Oracle: Jon Woidka, Nov. 16
2013: no oracle was chosen

2012 Oracle: Niki Tengan, Nov. 11
2011 Oracle: Marlin Sharp, Nov. 9
2010 Oracle: Niki Tengan, Nov. 24
2009 Oracle: Roma Hardy, Nov. 15
2008 Demioracle: Joyce Janetski, Nov. 24
2007 Golden Oracle: Norman Darais, Nov. 21
2006: no oracle was chosen

2005 Oracle: Peter Gardner, Nov. 15
2005 Apprentice Oracle: Natalie Miles, Nov. 16 (a lot of leaves, but not half)
2004 Demioracles: Charles Cranney, Nov. 2, and John Petersen, Nov. 24
2003 Oracles: Mark Larson and Keith Fullmer, Nov. 22
2002 Apprentice Oracle: Bryce Ott, Nov. 6 (leaves fell Nov. 1; Bryce was closest)
2001 Oracle: John Finlay, Nov. 24
2000 Oracle: Charles Cranney, Nov. 8
1999 Demioracles: Tawni Goldsberry, Nov. 22, and Bruce Patrick, Nov. 23
1998 Oracle: Brian Barrus, Nov. 20
1997 Oracle: Brian Barrus, Nov. 15

For many reasons, 2020 was an unusual year. Among the apocalyptic occurrences of the year was an early frost in late October that turned the leaves of our mulberry dark brown/gray, crunchy, and withered.

Yet, still, the leaves tenaciously clung to the tree for more than a week—through a strong wind—before finally falling on Saturday, Nov. 7, thus proclaiming Niki Tengan as the first three-time oracle.

[Photo courtesy Mike Walker, taken Halloween afternoon]

Predict the Fall Explanation

The tree outside the east door of Brand & Creative (in the University Press Building) is a white mulberry, a species with the unusual habit of retaining its leaves as long as possible. Each autumn those of us who work in the building watch as all the other trees’ leaves turn yellow and red and gradually loose their grip. Meanwhile, the leaves of our mulberry tree stay—for the most part—green and firmly attached.

Then one fateful day we come to work and are greeted by the sound of fall: scores of leaves hitting the ground in rapid succession. For much of one day (maybe two), the spectacle continues as leaves rain down outside Bruce Patrick’s office. Within a day or so, the tree is bare.

In 1997 we began the Predict the Fall contest in which we each attempt to pinpoint the date the leaves will fall. Those who participate enter a quest to become the "Oracle of the Tree" for the coming year.

An Oracle Is Chosen!

In a rapid fall of leaves early this morning, the tree selected Adam Johnson as an oracle. As many leaves remain on the tree, however, the question still hangs in the air: Is Adam a full oracle or a demioracle? Only time will tell.

2016 Fall Movie

2015 Fall Photo

2012 Fall Photo

2011 Fall Movie

2008 Fall Photo

2003 Fall Photo

Leaf Fall Brings Questions, Hope, Answers

2000 News Report
Nov. 8, 2000 [written as we all awaited a resolution to the 2000 U.S. presidential election]

As leaves fell Tuesday morning, hope rose. For weeks dozens of candidates had rested their dreams on one event, one biological occurence, one tree. And Tuesday appeared to be the day. Maybe.

In the early hours of Nov. 7, observers began to pause outside the Press Building to watch the votes come in—they were slower than usual, but they were steady as handfuls fell every minute. One observer jubilantly called the election, resting his predictions on the quick landing of leaves from the critical North Branch—a battleground area that carries a hefty portion of the biological ballots. Election judges expected a result by noon, growing in their confidence that the vote would go to candidate Norm Darais, a veteran tree watcher.

By late-morning Tuesday, the North Branch was clearly cast, and many leaves from other branches had fallen in line, giving Darais a significant lead. The Provo native was observed bearing two sample leaves and jubilantly sizing up his apparent victory in mid-afternoon. But other candidates had yet to concede, and by late-afternoon, judges were softening their earlier predictions, claiming that the race was too close to call and debating whether a recount would be necessary.

And that's how Tuesday ended—forerunner Darais solidly in the lead, but skeptics and other Oracle hopefuls waiting for more returns.

Wednesday dawned cold, and at 7:30 a.m. ballots were coming in fast. Judges quickly recanted earlier predictions and began checking the tree regularly. By 8:30 ground hits were being registered by the second, and candidate Charles Cranney was rapidly coming from behind. Cranney, an Orem native and long-time Oracle hopeful, declared victory before 9 a.m., with several other candidates conceding. Branches quickly emptied and by 10 a.m., the fall had slowed, leaving most polling places bare. It is unsure whether Darais has yet to concede, but the early leader held a private meeting with Cranney this morning, and experts suspect the Oracle-ship is soundly in Cranney's court.

"It's clear," said analyst Jeff McClellan, "that experience and native intuition carried the day in this decision. Both of the leaf leaders have been in the building and in the area for a long time—longer than some of the other candidates have been alive."

By late-morning Tuesday, exit polls solidly showed a Cranney victory, but a few ballots remained outstanding. Some wondered whether Darais supporters would demand a recount, but judges were confident in the initial count and said they weren't likely to entertain such requests. Oracle-elect Cranney will be inaugurated at the November treat day, time and date to be announced. 

Leaf Quotes

That time of year thou mayst in me behold
When yellow leaves, or none, or few, do hang
Upon those boughs which shake against the cold,
Bare ruin'd choirs, where late the sweet birds sang.
—William Shakespeare

And he shall be like a tree

planted by the rivers of water,
that bringeth forth his fruit
in his season;
his leaf also shall not wither;
and whatsoever he doeth shall prosper.
—Psalm of David

To Die
I wish to leave the world
By its natural door;
In my tomb of green leaves
They are to carry me to die.
Do not put me in the dark
To die like a traitor;
I am good, and like a good thing
I will die with my face to the sun.
—Jose Marti

What we take to be our strongest tower of delight,
only stands at the caprice of the minutest event—
the falling of a leaf, the hearing of a voice, or the receipt
of one little bit of paper scratched over with a few small
characters by a sharpened feather.
—Herman Melville

Can You Call the Fall? (A Tree Poem)

Y'all know our tree outside Bruce's wall—

it ain't very tall, but it sure ain't small.

It's a swell little tree—makes a nice little dell—

but when fall season fells, it's confusing as cell

biology. See this tree's fall's under spell.

But a story I'll tell, all your fears I will quell.

T'ain't worth a yell, it's simply that . . . well

its leaves just gel—they all stay put, come squall or squell.

They're in for the long-haul, they're really swell,

they've got a goal, they're on the ball.

Though other trees fall, this one stalls

until finally one day its soul it will sell

and like Saul becoming Paul it will change on the bell—

after one leaf has fell, the rest fall pell-mell.

So y'all, can ya' foretell, can ya' smell, can ya' call the fall?