A Thankful Fall

As we all enjoyed a warmer-than-usual November, the tree clung to most of its leaves, though a few seemed to fall every day. As Thanksgiving approached, much of the tree was yellow-green, with the extremities of the branches bare. This photo was taken Nov. 19: 

When we returned to the office after Thanksgiving, we found the limbs vacant. This photo was taken Nov. 29:

No one witnessed the actual fall, but we found someone who visited the UPB on Thanksgiving and who said that the tree had lost many leaves by late morning but many still clung to the tree. Another tree watcher came to the office Friday at about noon and later reported that the tree was bare, so we surmise that leaves fell both Thursday and Friday mornings. (Incidentally, Thursday and Friday, Nov. 25 and 26, were the coldest days of the month, dipping into the low 20s each morning.)

Fall Stats

• 2024 will be the 28th time suppliants have sought the honor of being the oracle. The first oracle was chosen in 1997.
• Not all years have been blessed with oracles:
• In five years (1999, 2004, 2008, 2016, and 2021), the tree has chosen demioracles (only half the leaves fell on their days).
• Another year (2002), the closest we could come was an apprentice oracle (a suppliant who was close).
• And four fateful years (2006, 2013, 2017, and 2019), there was no oracle at all. And we wept bitter tears.
• There have been 18 oracles, 8 demioracles, and 2 apprentice oracles.
• One oracle (Norm Darais, in 2007) was given the special honor of being the Golden Oracle (because the tree waited so long to drop its leaves that they had actually turned yellow).
• Niki Tengan has surpassed all others in her clairvoyant powers. She has been the oracle three times (2010, 2012, 2020).
• The average date of the fall is Nov. 15.
• Until 2019 the fall had never occurred in October.
• The earliest fall has been Oct. 28 (2019); the latest has been Nov. 27 (2023).
• Nov. 24 is the most common day for the fall; the tree has selected that date four times. Nov. 15 and Nov. 22 have been selected three times each.

Legends of the Fall

2023 Oracle: Natalie Miles, Nov. 27

2022 Oracle: Shane Westwood, Nov. 11

2021 Demioracles: Lena Primsoch, Nov. 25, and Andy Bay, Nov. 26

2020 Oracle: Niki Tengan, Nov. 7

2019: no oracle was chosen

2018 Oracle: Adam Johnson, Nov. 9

2017: no oracle was chosen

2016 Demioracle: Peter Gardner, Nov. 18

2015 Oracle: AJ Rich, Nov. 22

2014 Oracle: Jon Woidka, Nov. 16
2013: no oracle was chosen

2012 Oracle: Niki Tengan, Nov. 11
2011 Oracle: Marlin Sharp, Nov. 9
2010 Oracle: Niki Tengan, Nov. 24
2009 Oracle: Roma Hardy, Nov. 15
2008 Demioracle: Joyce Janetski, Nov. 24
2007 Golden Oracle: Norman Darais, Nov. 21
2006: no oracle was chosen

2005 Oracle: Peter Gardner, Nov. 15
2005 Apprentice Oracle: Natalie Miles, Nov. 16 (a lot of leaves, but not half)
2004 Demioracles: Charles Cranney, Nov. 2, and John Petersen, Nov. 24
2003 Oracles: Mark Larson and Keith Fullmer, Nov. 22
2002 Apprentice Oracle: Bryce Ott, Nov. 6 (leaves fell Nov. 1; Bryce was closest)
2001 Oracle: John Finlay, Nov. 24
2000 Oracle: Charles Cranney, Nov. 8
1999 Demioracles: Tawni Goldsberry, Nov. 22, and Bruce Patrick, Nov. 23
1998 Oracle: Brian Barrus, Nov. 20
1997 Oracle: Brian Barrus, Nov. 15